• The Gold Price Backed Off $3.80 or 0.3 Percent Closing at $1,209.80

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    29-Apr-15 Price Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz 1,209.80 -3.80 -0.31%
    Silver Price, $/oz 16.67 0.08 0.48%
    Gold/Silver Ratio 72.573 -0.575 -0.79%
    Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0138 0.0001 0.79%
    Platinum Price 1,160.40 2.90 0.25%
    Palladium Price 784.75 3.80 0.49%
    S&P 500 2,106.85 -7.91 -0.37%
    Dow 18,035.53 -74.61 -0.41%
    Dow in GOLD $s 308.17 -0.31 -0.10%
    Dow in GOLD oz 14.91 -0.01 -0.10%
    Dow in SILVER oz 1,081.92 -9.65 -0.88%
    US Dollar Index 95.32 -0.87 -0.90%

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart

    On the Comex the GOLD PRICE backed off $3.80 (0.3%) to $1,209.80, symbolically below $1,210, while silver rose 7.9 cents (0.5%) to $16.67.

    Let me give y’all another reason I believe the GOLD PRICE/US dollar index spread & the Silver/US dollar index spread are important. What drives silver & gold monetary demand is confidence or lack of confidence in the financial system. When confidence in the dollar falls, there’s a good chance confidence in the financial system is falling as well, since the dollar is the lynchpin currency in the world monetary system. So the spreads show people rolling out of dollars and into silver and gold.

    Gold/Bank Stock Index
    $Gold/$USD

    Another confidence indicator is the Gold/Bank Stock Index spread. That has been falling, of course, since 2011, but since 2014 has been range trading sideways. Bounced off the range’s bottom boundary in March, and has been trying to rise, walking through downtrend lines but not roaring upward. Chart on the right.

    Not so the $Gold/$USD spread. Broke out through upper triangle boundary & 50 DMA on Monday & his climbed those stairs like a champ ever since. Charts on the left.

    $Silver/$USD

    The vanilla gold and SILVER charts, that is, priced in US Dollars not the dollar index, don’t look quite as good. Technically silver had to pierce 1660c, but it can’t stop there. Gold must pierce $1,210 and then $1,225. Can’t stop to smell the jonquils. Oh, a day like today where gold digests $40 worth of gains made in two days is okay, but not stopping and going sideways, dancing over & under $1,210 for days and days. General Bedford Forrest used to say, “Get the skeer on ’em and keep the skeer on ’em.” That’s the way you win, not lollygaggin’.

    Gold/Silver Ratio

    The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is also moving in metals’ favor. At Comex close today it was 72.573, down 3.6% in four days, and again below the 20 & 50 DMAs & perched just above the uptrend line from the April 2011 low.

    I bought some silver today, kicking myself for not buying it last week, but still wary.

    Customers keep calling, buying large orders, expressing the same sentiment: “I just don’t trust the economy. I just don’t trust the government. I just don’t know what’s going to happen.” Y’all know I don’t encourage fear or greed, but I have to take notice when nearly every day I hear the same thing from people all over the country. Even if these folk’s apprehensions are wrong, the fact that they feel them says bad things about what the public expects.

    The yankee government’s lying first quarter 2015 GDP report came out at 0.2% annual growth, down from 2.2% in 4Q2014 & 5% in 3Q2014. Media shysters & economists immediately burbled all sorts of excuses to explain the growing economy that didn’t grow: bad weather, cheaper oil, strikes on the West coast, stronger dollar, bad karma. Let me be clear: all these are in the same class with excusing the lipstick on your collar to your wife by saying, “But, Honey, I was drunk & the bar was dark!” Res ipsa loquitur. Thanks to brilliant government spending and central bank management, the economy is smothering, but nobody wants to be the little kid who points out the emperor’s nakedness.

    FOMC meeting announces no change, no shift, no date when it will raise interest rates — Wait. Think how cosmic-ly stupid that statement is, as if 9 or 10 geniuses, let alone the goofs on the FOMC, really could determine what the “best” interest rate might be for an economy of 1000 people, let alone 330 million. Their opinion will yield a better result than the actions of 150 million economic participants? When hogs dance the Charleston.

    A country without a central bank is like an oyster without a piano.

    US Dollar

    But of all the unknowns in the world, the FOMC’s effect on the US dollar is not one: it fell. Yee-owch! US dollar index fell 87 basis points (0.91%) to a new low for the move at 95.32. That cut through but didn’t close below the lower trading channel boundary, raising the specter the dollar might break through that support by plunging through 95.15. Remember the Rule of the Parabolic Rise: what rises fast falls fast. Scary, scary chart.

    US Dollar 4 Year

    One dear reader reminds me that on 19 August 2011 I said, “Mistake me not! Long term the dollar is a cooked goose, a dead duck, a terminated turkey, a poached peacock.” Sounds right to me — I’ll stand by that. Last 4 years chart looks like a Chinese stock market, flatlining then doubling in 10 months.

    Euro

    After months of weakness & waiting, the Euro at last rose above resistance & confirms it intends to rally. Rose 1.23% to $1.1111.

    Yen actually fell 0.13% to 84.00. Apparently the Nipponese Nice Government Men didn’t want it to take advantage of the dollar’s fall.

    Crashing dollar is helping commodities. WTIC today rose 2.81% to $58.58/barrel. Copper rose 0.54% to 2.80 and made an equivocal breakout.

    Another thing we know about the FOMC announcement today: it didn’t help stocks. ALL stock indices dipped. Dow fell 74.61 (0.41%) to 18,035.53. S&P500 dropped 7.91 (0.37%) to 2,106.85. Notwithstanding the FOMC’s disruption today (remember, that’s the same as using “I was drunk” to explain that lipstick), that shows puniness in stocks, unable to climb through their upper boundary line resistance. And to work their way through, then fall back, that’s worse than being turned down for a job at McDonald’s.

    Watch the Dow at 18,034 – 18,039. It has closed there 5 times since 14 April. Inertia is carrying it down when it falls below that mark, or maybe holding it up.

    Looky here! Dow in gold fell 0.3% to G$308.22 gold dollars (14.91 oz.), falling further and further below its 50 & 20 DMAs. WFF: Will Fall Further.

    Oooch! Dow in silver fell S$12.55 silver dollars (9.71 troy oz) or 0.9% to S$1,398.85 silver dollars (1,081.92 oz). All systems pointing down.

    Symptomatic of the centralizing trend of the period 1650 – 2000, on 29 April 1707 the English & Scottish parliaments accepted the Act of Union creating the United Kingdom of Great Britain. Symptomatic of the Decentralizing trend that has begun in the last couple of decades, last fall there was a referendum in Scotland for independence and the will to secede is spreading all over the world.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
    The-MoneyChanger.com

    © 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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