• Gold Price Closed $3.30 Lower at $1,103.40

    21-Jul-15 Price Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz 1,103.40 -3.30 -0.30%
    Silver Price, $/oz 14.77 0.02 0.16%
    Gold/Silver Ratio 74.71 -0.347 -0.46%
    Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0001 0.46%
    Platinum Price 986.00 -4.20 -0.42%
    Palladium Price 628.45 17.40 2.85%
    S&P 500 2,119.21 -9.07 -0.43%
    Dow 17,919.29 -181.12 -1.00%
    Dow in GOLD $s 334.71 -2.38 -0.71%
    Dow in GOLD oz 16.19 -0.12 -0.71%
    Dow in SILVER oz 1,215.28 -14.28 -1.16%
    US Dollar Index 97.44 -0.72 -0.73%

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart
    Gold Price

    Today on the Comex the GOLD PRICE closed at $1.103.40, $3.30 lower than yesterday. But on an End of Day chart it closed $3.50 higher. Either way today’s low at $1,095.90 was higher than yesterday’s $1,080.00. Chart on right.

    Silver Price

    Comex SILVER today gained a meaningless 2.4 cents to $14.769. Low today at $14.61 was higher than yesterday’s $14.49.

    Unlike gold, silver’s RSI is not oversold, although it was more oversold than today at the 7 July low. As volume was also significantly higher on the 7 July low and lower yesterday, that’s the sort of thing that suggests a double bottom, but no confirmation yet.

    Gold/Silver Ratio

    The GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell another 1/2% today to 74.711. That does not support any expectation of a further plunge, since the ratio is moving exactly the opposite way it would in a plunge. It closed below its 20 day moving average today and the uptrend line from the April 2011 low. It’s MACD has turned down. It’s set to fall further, which argues that it’s whispering that silver and gold prices will turn around. Chart on the right:

    Silver and GOLD PRICES need to show a sharp reversal, preferably a drop into a slightly new low with a higher close for the day. Or a nice big jump over $15.00 and $1,130 would do, too.

    I have the oddest feeling I am witnessing 2008 in slow motion. I mean the metals markets, of course. During that fall panic premiums on all forms of silver shot up and physicals prices de-coupled from futures prices. It didn’t matter that the futures price was $8.80, you couldn’t buy any physical silver at all for less than $13.20, a 50% premium or higher. Delivery was delayed for eight weeks. Gold price premiums weren’t as strongly affected, but gold deliveries were as badly delayed.

    Now US90% is carrying a 23.5% premium (350 cents/oz) at wholesale, more expensive even than silver American Eagles. The US mint has suspended silver American Eagle deliveries, and other privately minted silver rounds are two to three weeks out. I feel lucky to have a few in stock.

    Maybe I’ve been listening to the wind in the tulip poplars too long, but a weird urgency hangs over things.

    Somebody asked me about rumors of China dumping gold. Me, I have no way of knowing, but I doubt it. China ain’t gold’s problem, western central banks, and especially the Fed and US government, are.

    I’ve been thinking about that Gold price, and I got to looking at the Relative Strength Index. Invented by the great commodity trader Welles Wilder, it’s a momentum oscillator that measures speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100, but is overbought above 70 and oversold below 30.

    Yesterday, 20 July 2015, the gold RSI was more oversold at 18.46 than at any time since the fiasco days of 2013 when the nearest RSI reading to the bottom was 19.71 (15 April 13 read 15.3). Before that, you have to stretch back to 19 July 1999 bottom with an RSI at 26.26. (Readings in June 1999 were lower).

    Another odd thing: the RSI sometimes makes it low a day before, the price low. Yesterday the RSI closed at 18.46, today it’s at 21.16. That caught my eye.

    Dow in Gold
    Dow in Silver

    So backing off from the RSI trees, here’s the forest: gold’s RSI is lower than at any time since the 1999 lows, except for the 2013 waterfall. Those low readings coincided with bottoms.

    Stocks lost all their gas today and crumpled like a leaky dirigible. Dow lost 181.12 (1%) to 17,919.29, below the morale-bustin’ 18,000 line. S&P500 gave up 9.07 (0.43%) to 2,119.21. Dow closed below its 50 DMA.

    Dow in gold and Dow in silver turned sharply down.

    US Dollar Index

    Dollar index crashed out of that bearish rising wedge today in a textbook downside resolution. Fell 72 basis points (0.73%) to 97.44 like your Grandpa’s upper plate falling down the well. Doesn’t say the dollar index can’t rally higher later, only that it will take a rest for a few days now. Only a close below 93.15 would turn the dollar unarguably down.

    One day soon stocks will begin coming apart and silver and gold rising. Sometimes you don’t even know the turnaround day when you see it.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

    Write a comment