• Next Week Promises to Be a Wild One for Silver and Gold Prices

    2-Oct-15 9-Oct-15 Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz. 1,137.10 1,156.30 19.20 1.7
    Silver Price, $/oz. 15.257 15.809 0.552 3.6
    Gold/Silver Ratio 74.530 73.142 -1.388 -1.9
    Silver/gold ratio 0.0134 0.0137 0.0003 1.9
    Dow in Gold $ (DIG$) 299.46 305.43 5.97 2.0
    Dow in gold ounces 14.49 14.78 0.29 2.0
    Dow in Silver ounces 1,079.66 1,080.68 1.02 0.1
    Dow Industrials 16,472.37 17,084.49 612.12 3.7
    S&P500 1,951.36 2,014.89 63.53 3.3
    US dollar index 96.33 94.88 -1.45 -1.5
    Platinum Price 907.30 979.50 72.20 8.0
    Palladium Price 697.60 706.80 9.20 1.3

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart
    Gold Price 5 Month

    Healthy week for SILVER with a 3.6% gain, and for the GOLD PRICE with 1.7%.

    The GOLD PRICE at last joined the party, shooting up $11.60 (1%) to $1,156.30, finally above $1,150. Silver inched up 4.9 cents (0.3%) to $15.809.

    The price of gold simply climbed all day long, 45 degree angle. And once it got up there it held on. Here’s a five month chart.

    On that chart y’all can see that gold’s last intraday high was $1,169.80, and that the 200 day moving average lies above at $1,176.48. The gold price needs to break down that $1,170 – $1,177 barrier. That can happen crazy fast, and shoot gold through $1,200.

    Silver Price

    SILVER PRICE had handed the baton over to the gold price, after running out in front so long. It tried to cross $16.00, but couldn’t hold on up there. What is silver dealing with here? Breaking through that 200 day moving average ($15.96 today). Once it conquers that level, next real resistance doesn’t appear until $17.78.

    That outrageously high premium on US 90% silver coin has backed down this week, down to $2.75/ounce from $3.80/oz. However, supply is still very tight for newly produced silver rounds and 100 ounce bars, with delivery delays of 4 – 6 weeks. If that 90% coin premium reaches $4.00/oz again, swap 90% for bars.

    Next week promises to be a wild one for silver and gold prices.

    Dollar index seems finally to be signalling its direction, and that earthward. Stocks rallied this week, an impressive 3.7% and 3.3% bear market rally, but a bear market rally still. Look at that Platinum, up 8% in one week!

    US Dollar

    BOOM! Pfssst! BOOM! Pfssst! That’s the Fed’s blarney cannon, firing as fast as it can. Fed sent out two shills today, NY FedPres. William Dudley and Atlanta FedPres Dennis Lockhart. Both of ’em said, Sure, right-o, yes-indeedy, we are a-gonna raise rates here soon, maybe in December, but it may be in 2016, or even 2020, or by 2030 for sure. Interpret all this as frantic Fed efforts to recapture their credibility, which escaped forever when they failed to raise rates in September.

    Let us then try to pierce the persiflage to see what markets are doing.

    Most eyecatching today was the US dollar index, which tanked 52 basis points (0.55%) to 94.88, below everything: 95.50 support, all three moving averages, and the lower boundary of a potentially fatal rising wedge. Chart on the right, Doesn’t that two day fall look like it’s spilling out of a leak in that rising wedge? No indication dollar under its own power can do anyhting save fall, but of course the Nice Govenrment Men might step in any time to prop it up. It’s nature, though, is to declare gravity triumphant.

    Dow in Gold

    Yen fell 0.25% to 83.18. Euro appears — appears, I say — to have broken out upward. Even showed a slight gap up. Rose 0.71% to $1.1358. Given Europe’s worse economy than the US and ongoing QE to inflate its currency, why would anybody buy them nasty euros?

    Dow in Silver

    Stocks have run out of steam in another rising wedge. That’s what rising wedges portray, a move running out of gas. Dow added 33.74 (0.2%) while the S&P500 gained 2.15 (0.18%) to close at 2,014.89. It was an indecisive day, reversing trend five times, and underwater at 2:30. But “somebody” opened a can of spinach and fed it to stocks about 2:30 so they ended the day higher. Was it real, or Memorex, or Popeye? Mercy, I don’t know.

    I do suspect, however, that today marks the limit of that upward move, which will be followed by a markedly swifter and stronger downward move.

    Copper Price

    Dow in Gold fell 1.31% to 14.78 troy ounces today, below the 200 and 50 day moving averages, so headed firmly down. Once it passes that last low at 14.05 oz its downwardness will wax swiftly.

    Light Crude Oil

    Dow in silver fell 0.78% today to 1,079.93 troy ounces. Momentum is downhill.

    Here’s a shocking contradiction to that deflation story the central banks have been trying to sell. Reuters reported this morning that in the wake of Glencore’s output cuts, metals rallied wildly: Zinc up 12%, lead up 9%, Copper 2.9% higher, aluminum up 3.5%, nickel up 3.1% and tin 1.3% higher.

    Although West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 3.6% to $49.49 today, it has broken out of a pennant and today touched its 200 DMA. Wants to rise, rise after a double bottom, March and August.
    Copper has a double bottom, too.

    Y’all enjoy your weekend.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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