• Silver and Gold Price Break Out

    3-Feb-16 Price Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz 1,141.30 14.00 1.24%
    Silver Price, $/oz 14.72 0.44 3.11%
    Gold/Silver Ratio 77.534 -1.431 -1.81%
    Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0129 0.0002 1.85%
    Platinum Price 878.80 24.40 2.86%
    Palladium Price 516.85 26.25 5.35%
    S&P 500 1,912.53 9.50 0.50%
    Dow 16,336.66 183.12 1.13%
    Dow in GOLD $s 295.90 -0.32 -0.11%
    Dow in GOLD oz 14.31 -0.02 -0.11%
    Dow in SILVER oz 1,109.83 -21.69 -1.92%
    US Dollar Index 97.24 -1.63 -1.65%

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart

    On Comex the SILVER PRICE rose 44.4¢ to $14.72, up 3.1%. The GOLD PRICE rose $14.00 or 1.2% to $1,141.30.

    These breakouts smash my breakout requirements, $14.65 and $1,128-$1,132. Strong and vigorous, they confirm each other. More, platinum rose 2.9% and palladium 5.4%. The GOLD PRICE has risen through its 200 DMA for the first time since October, and on rising volume. Silver’s volume EXPLODED, from 30,250 contracts yesterday to 62,071 today.

    Gold Price
    Silver Price

    Yet carp I still. Been fooled too many times. I want to see at least a 3% confirmation of these breakouts, that is, gold price over $1,128 + 3% or $1,162 and silver over $15.09. Call it $15.13, cause that’s where the 200 DMA presently resideth.

    Here are the charts, and they are stunning:

    For a metals rally the GOLD/SILVER RATIO needs to fall as well. Today it hit the bottom boundary of the rising trading channel that has entrapped it since October. Closed today below its 20 AND 50 DMA. Appears ready to drop out of the channel. A close below 76.50 tomorrow will clinch that.

    This is exactly the sort of breakout move in metals that I’ve been looking for. BIG doin’s. Gotta buy breakouts.

    MEDITATION: If all the world’s central banks take interest rates negative, how could the Fed possibly stand against that tide? Leaving US rates positive would suck in all the capital in the world into the dollar. Why did Bloomberg report yesterday that the Fed announced it will assess the resilience of big banks to, among other conditions, negative interest rates (rate on 3 mo. Treasury bill below zero for a prolonged period). Are they merely satisfying their idle curiosity? Remember, negative rates remove the great objection to holding silver and gold, namely, they pay no interest. Under negative rates investors would have to PAY to hold bank deposits or government bonds, while holding metals would cost nothing and offer potential price rise.

    US Dollar

    I wrote the above early this morning, before the dollar’s foretold weakness erupted like a boil. Dollar fell 163 basis points (1.65%) to 97.24. During the day it fell clean through all possible support and below the December low (97.21), hit the 200 day moving average (96.91), but recovered slightly to 97.24. Dollar index is as broken as it gets, with paired waterfalls in December and February. Twas a huge move, and locks earthward momentum and all indicators.

    Dollar’s drop set off a universal re-pricing for commodities and bonds. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $4.15 (14%) to $33.86, not quite enough for a reversal but way above the 20 DMA. Close above $34.82 confirms at least a short term rally.

    10 year treasury note yield dipped to new low territory, hitting the uptrend line from the July 2012 low, and reversed to close at 1.881, up 0.91% and first half of a key reversal upwards. Copper jumped 2.39% to $2.10.

    Not the least of the re-pricing happened in currencies. Euro vaulted 1.76% to $1.1110, above the $1.1052 200 day moving average for the first time since October. Now has painted a believable breakout from even-sided triangle. Oh, and the yen! Japanese Nice Government Men must be throwing hissy fits. After they thought they fixed the Yen/$ exchange rate last week, it gapped up today and closed up 1.83% at 84.91, not far from the January intraday high at 86.06. Saved its rally.

    Stocks wavered, scratched their heads, and then decided to rise. Dow climbed 183.12 (1.13%) to 16,336.66, back above the 20 DMA. But performance across indices oddly contradicted itself. S&P500 rose not 1.13% but only 0.5% or 9.5 to 1,912.53. Small cap Russell 2000 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell, 0.28% and 0.5%. That don’t smell good, but at day’s end the Big Two closed higher.

    Dear Friends, my wife Susan is suffering a lot of pain from her eye. Doctor today had to cut a stitch from her eye and scratched the eye doing it. She is clean worn out fighting pain. Would y’all please continue to pray for her?

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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