• Gold Price Stumbled $18.40 or 1.49 Percent to $1,219.80

    19-Feb-16 26-Feb-16 Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz. 1,230.40 1,219.80 -10.60 -0.9
    Silver Price, $/oz. 15.368 14.689 0.679 -4.4
    Gold/Silver Ratio 80.062 83.042 2.979 3.7
    Silver/gold ratio 0.0125 0.0120 -0.0004 -3.6
    Dow in Gold $ (DIG$) 275.40 282.00 6.60 2.4
    Dow in gold ounces 13.32 13.64 0.32 2.4
    Dow in Silver ounces 1,066.63 1,132.82 66.19 6.2
    Dow Industrials 16,391.99 16,639.97 247.98 1.5
    S&P500 1,917.78 1,948.05 30.27 1.6
    US dollar index 96.65 98.10 1.45 1.5
    Platinum Price 944.60 914.50 -30.10 -3.2
    Palladium Price 499.25 482.10 -17.15 -3.4

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart

    It was a hard week for the little things. SILVER and GOLD PRICES were badly battered today. Stocks dipped today but held on to a weekly gain. US dollar index surprised all by coming alive today and springing up 1.5% for the week. Silver and gold prices took the beating today they’ve been wincing for all week, but it’s better than okay. Clears the road for next advance. Platinum and palladium both got hammered, down over 3%.

    Owch. The SILVER PRICE tumbled 48.1¢ (3.2%) to $14.689. The gold price stumbled $18.40 (1.49%) to $1,219.80.

    9 Month Silver Price

    A letter I got from a reader today left me wondering if I have given y’all a misapprehension about my expectations. I firmly believe that gold and silver’s long correction bottomed with the December 2015 lows. However, after that huge breakout burst on 11 February, a correction became likely. That’s what I’ve been looking for all week, and it materialized today.

    Why is a correction good news? Because it will clear the way for the next rally.

    Gold Price

    Silver fell out of an even-sided triangle and clean through its 200 DMA ($15.05). IF (if) it does not stop around here, it could reach the 50 DMA at $14.47 or lower. Volume today dried up, so this retreat shouldn’t last much longer. Also, the top of that bowl that silver broke out of stands at $14.40. That ought to support silver. Here’s a 9-month chart on the right:

    Gold/Silver Ratio

    The GOLD PRICE fell to the nether boundary of that bear flag. That pattern usually breaks out earthward. Target is $1,180, maybe lower on a scare-spike. This will not drag on for long. Y’all should take EVERY retreat as an opportunity to buy silver and gold at a price that will leave you bragging to your grandbabies. Gold chart on the left:

    Never say never with markets. GOLD/SILVER RATIO pushed through the range’s top boundary today and ended Comex at 83.042. Owch. If not an anomaly, I don’t want to imagine what it might mean. Way, way overbought, so you’d expect it to fall next week. That implies the gold price would drop and catch up to silver. GREAT time to swap gold for silver. Call us at (931) 766-6066. Here’s a ratio chart on the right.

    US Dollar

    Now to the dollar, ugly duckling turned into ugly duck. Good news in lying government reports today goosed it 81 basis points (0.84%) to 98.10. Noteworthy here is a close above 97.50 resistance but not quite above the 98.14 50-DMA — a line which might mark the limit of the dollar’s advance. Still, odds favor higher dollar next week, probably riding optimism bleeding out of stocks.

    Euro nailed its own coffin shut today, closing below the lower range boundary that has contained most trading since last June. Lost 0.8% to $1.0937. Yen has unarguably broken its uptrend, taking much pressure off the Japanese Nice Government Men. Sank 0.85% to 87.72.

    West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil

    West Texas Intermediate Crude can’t pierce $34.50 resistance — yet. Fell back 0.91% to $32.78. Trying to bottom, but so weakly. Copper didn’t care and rose 1.73 to $2.11. No change here until it scales $2.15.

    Not much joy in Stockville today. ‘Twas a day of steady loss, dwindling, dwindling through the day. Dow gave up 57.32 (0.34%) to 16,639.97. S&P500 lost 0.19% (3.65) to1,948.05. That puts the Dow above resistance (16,600 and the 50 DMA at 15,686) and the S&P500 stalled — just over the 1,944 50 DMA but feet still tangled in 1950 resistance.

    Both can still rise a tad, but not much — not more than 17,000 and 2,000. This may take another two weeks to unroll.

    Dow in Gold

    In the Dow measured in metals, the upward correction we anticipated is working itself out. Dow in gold keeps vibrating up and down over the uptrend line from the 2011 low, and today bumped into the 20 DMA (13.65 troy ounces). Rose 0.74% to end at 13.63 troy ounces. Might stretch for the 50 DMA, now at 14.75 oz, before it exhausts.

    Dow in Silver

    Dow in silver reacheth for the 200 DMA (1,146.45 tr. Oz). 200 and 50 DMA are about to run together. DiS lifted 2.72% today to 1,132.82 troy ounces. After the fall we have seen since the December peak, this is nothing unusual.

    Don’t miss the point: back of stocks’ rally against metals that began in September 2011 has been BROKEN. Trend change to DOWN. For the next several years, silver and gold prices will gain value against stocks (stocks will become cheaper in silver and gold terms).

    On 25 February 1863 the yankee congress passed the National Banking Act, part of the Lincoln government’s attempt to float its bonds for an unpopular war. This was the embryo of a central bank in the US, another of Lincoln’s crimes.

    Susan’s eye is growing better day by day. Thanks again for your prayers.

    Y’all enjoy your weekend.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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