• Gold Price Soared $14.10 Today Closing Up at $1,233.90

    29-Feb-16 Price Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz 1,233.90 14.10 1.16%
    Silver Price, $/oz 14.90 0.21 1.41%
    Gold/Silver Ratio 82.834 -0.207 -0.25%
    Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0121 0.0000 0.25%
    Platinum Price 933.70 19.20 2.10%
    Palladium Price 495.60 13.50 2.80%
    S&P 500 1,932.23 -15.82 -0.81%
    Dow 16,516.50 -123.47 -0.74%
    Dow in GOLD $s 276.70 -5.29 -1.88%
    Dow in GOLD oz 13.39 -0.26 -1.88%
    Dow in SILVER oz 1,108.79 -24.03 -2.12%
    US Dollar Index 98.22 0.04 0.04%

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart

    The GOLD PRICE burst the surly bonds of below-$1,200 to soar $14.10 (1.16%) to $1,233.90, right back where this fun began. The SILVER PRICE flew 20.7¢ (1.41%) higher to perch at $14.896.

    Gold/Silver Ratio

    Anyone trading the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, as many commodity traders do via the futures markets, would close out their long gold/short silver at 84.5, since the ratio topped there in 2008. Well, look at the chart on the right. End of Day Ratio chart shows Friday’s high at 84.53. Clearly something is driving that ratio, but what? What conditions resemble 2008? Are credit markets really that tight? I don’t know, that’s above my pay grade.

    Gold Price

    In any event, just from a technical standpoint that ratio ought to back off a while, even if it intends later to go higher. By the way, it is also monstrously overbought by its RSI and MACD, most overbought in 15 months. Hence it makes sense to swap gold for silver here, at any ratio above 80.

    Today cast the while stock rally/metals correction into cloudy suspense again. Stocks seem to have stalled at those resistance areas, and the GOLD PRICE turned around and recovered.

    Silver Price

    But still ‘t’ain’t right. The gold price has drawn an up-pointing bear flag, and that promises to take the price of gold back to $1,180. That is the most likely outcome, but if gold can pierce $1,264 before that, it will take off for another $50 run or more.

    SILVER resolved an even-sided triangle by breakout out downside. That established a new downsloping channel sliding toward $14.50 – $14.40 Silver will only complete its penance when it breaks above not $15.99 the last high, but the October $16.40 high. Meanwhile it is offering y’all a chance to buy more on the cheap.

    Some commentators think that stocks have been rising on the expectation that the G-20 meeting in Shanghai would spawn some sort of concerted stimulus by central banks. Well, it didn’t, and now stocks are sagging.

    November, December, January, and February the MSCI World stock index (ex-USA) has fallen. Dow barely ended this month higher, S&P was lower, Russell 2000 fell third month running, Nasdaq 100 has fallen three months, and Nasdaq composite four months.

    Chinese central bank lowered its bank reserve requirement 1/2%, and as if that meant something, stocks in Europe rose. I say “as if” because China is a command economy where such decisions are made for political, not economic, reasons. ‘Tis all a vast Potemkin village, waiting for a vast and bloody fall. That Chinese move helped not US stocks, which peaked about 11:30 and fell wretchedly the rest of the day. Dow tumbled 123.47 (0.74%) to 16,516.50 and the S7P500 fell back 15.82 (0.81%) to 1,932.23.

    Feels like I have stepped into a Salvador Dali filled with skulls and melting clocks, this surreal world where things seem real but are as insubstantial as wet cardboard. You poke ’em with a finger and punch right through.

    US dollar lost its spunk today. Rose 4 basis points and did close above 50 DMA (98.14) at 98.22, but its momentum has slowed and it’s looking a little wedgy, as in bearish rising edge. But no matter how shopworn, fly specked, and putrid the dollar looks, it has one advantage: sometimes it looks better than its closest rivals.

    I say sometimes because today the yen rose 1.15% to 88.74. It may have topped already, but when it catches that safe haven bid for money running out of Europe and other Asian countries, it can pop. Mirroring the despairing condition of the EU and its economy, the euro fell 0.5% today to $1.0875, taking another nose dive.

    Together we would do well to remember the CHARACTER of bull and bear markets. Bear markets stage sudden, sharp rallies that expire as suddenly as they began. Market proverb says the bear wants to lure as many investors as possible into his den to maul them at his leisure. Bear market can show dramatic advances and corrections more terrifying than a roller coaster — the bull trying to shake off as many riders as possible.

    Me, I don’t know bull from bear. My astrological sign is the possum, so when markets scare me I tend to curl up in a ball and play dead.

    My wife Susan told me that yesterday was her first good day with her eye, and today was just a little better. I deeply appreciate y’all’s concern.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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