• The Gold Price has an Established Uptrend and is Knocking on its 50 Day Moving Average at $1,238.40


    Gold Price Close Today : 1,246.70
    Gold Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 1,238.40
    Change : 8.30 or 0.7%

    Silver Price Close Today : 20.201
    Silver Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 20.182
    Change : 1.90 or 0.1%

    Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.715
    Gold Silver Ratio 3-Jan-14 : 61.362
    Change : 0.353 or 0.6%

    Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01620
    Silver Gold Ratio 3-Jan-14 : 0.01630
    Change : 0.000 or -0.6%

    Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 272.55
    Dow in Gold Dollars 3-Jan-14 : $ 274.92
    Change : -2.38 or -0.9%

    Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.184
    Dow in Gold Ounces 3-Jan-14 : 13.299
    Change : -0.11 or -0.9%

    Dow in Silver Ounces : 813.68
    Dow in Silver Ounces 3-Jan-14 : 816.07
    Change : -2.40 or -0.3%

    Dow Industrial : 16,437.05
    Dow Industrial 3-Jan-14 : 16,469.99
    Change : -32.94 or -0.2%

    S&P 500 : 1,842.37
    S&P 500 3-Jan-14 : 1,831.37
    Change : 11.00 or 0.6%

    US Dollar Index : 80.750
    US Dollar Index 3-Jan-14 : 81.040
    Change : -0.29 or -0.4%

    Platinum Price Close Today : 1,434.70
    Platinum Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 1,411.50
    Change : 23.20 or 1.6%

    Palladium Price Close Today : 745.15
    Palladium Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 730.30
    Change : 14.85 or 2.0%

    For the third week in a row silver and GOLD PRICES are stronger than stocks, and against a rising dollar too. The silver and gold price came back growling this week, stocks are confused, white metals are up, and the US dollar index fainted again today.

    After being knocked back from the $1,250 level a few days ago, the gold price darted right back to the line today, rising $17.40(1.4%) to $1,246.70. From that position next week gold can challenge $1,250 and the most significant hurdle, $1,267.50, the December high. Gold closed mere dollars and cents from its 50 DMA at $1,249.

    So take stock: The GOLD PRICE has an established uptrend, is above its 20 DMA and knocking on its 50 DMA. Momentum indicators are all strong, and related markets (gold equity indices) are firming or showing double bottoms. The Dow in Gold is falling, pointing to gold strength. And the weekly chart has risen three weeks running. All good.

    Listen, y’all, bull markets always climb a wall of worry — can it get through the next level? And the next? It’s too early to call the December lows a double bottom with June, other than as an operating assumption, but if gold can o’erleap $1,267.50, then $1,361.80, the bottom has been seen.

    The SILVER PRICE far outshone the gold price today, rising 2.7% (53.8 cents) to 2020.1. Yea, how comforting to see gold above the 2000 cent line! And silver cut into but did not cross over its 50 DMA (2021c), and closed right on it.

    Silver shows a double bottom in December, which also pairs with the June lows. Internal indicators are all positive. What else do you want?

    Well, a close above the last high at 2044c, then a quick rise through 2100c resistance, followed by a speedy rise above the October 2309.5c high. Is that plain enough?

    Unless silver closes below 1940 cents and the gold price below $1,195, I am working on the assumption that they have put a bottom unto the long 2011-2013 correction.

    Stock indices inauspiciously gainsaid one other today. Day started out with a very bad jobs report that drove stocks down. Oddly, investors discounted that and stocks ended higher. Normally when a market doesn’t react to bad news, or moves up rather than falls, it signals great strength. But how does that explain the Dow, the senior, blue chip stock index, FALLING today when all the other indices rose? That disharmony augurs something not quite right underneath. Looking at the chart, the Dow remains in a downtrend begun on 31 December and is closing in on its 20 Dma (16,286) and its uptrend line. It lost 7.71 today (0.05%) to close 16,437.05. S&P500 added 4.24 (0.23%) to 1,842.37. Day’s range cut into the uptrend line, but it closed above it. However, it still has painted a downtrend on the chart. 20 DMA stands below at 1,821.85.

    Might as well tell y’all I expect great sorrow, weeping, and gnashing of teeth for stock investors this year. More I study charts, more I expect that.

    Meanwhile the US dollar index, apparently in expectation of less “taper” (or is it “tapir”) fell, as did the yield on the 10 year treasury note (bond prices rose). Let’s see, stocks rose and bonds rose. I reckon I’m too country to cipher that out, but after a break out that’s very weak performance.

    However, a noteworthy difference shows in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver.

    Both broke down through their 20 DMAS (825.85 oz and 13.36 oz), and through their short term uptrend lines. DiG lost 1.78% to 13.17 oz ($$275.25 gold dollars). DiS backed down 3.15% (whew!) to 815.33 oz. These indicators usually show the turn of metals against stocks very reliably, so we want them to lead or concur with silver and gold prices.

    Y’all enjoy your weekend!

    Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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