• The Gold Price Lost $12.20 Closing at $1,293.50

    15-May-14 Price Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz 1,293.50 -12.20 -0.93%
    Silver Price, $/oz 19.45 -0.29 -1.46%
    Gold/Silver Ratio 66.514 0.352 0.53%
    Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0150 -0.0001 -0.53%
    Platinum Price 1,469.60 -15.80 -1.06%
    Palladium Price 811.90 -16.70 -2.02%
    S&P 500 1,870.85 -17.88 -0.95%
    Dow 16,446.81 -167.16 -1.01%
    Dow in GOLD $s 262.84 -0.19 -0.07%
    Dow in GOLD oz 12.71 -0.01 -0.07%
    Dow in SILVER oz 845.72 3.87 0.46%
    US Dollar Index 80.08 -0.04 -0.05%

    It was disappointing to see the GOLD PRICE lose $12.20 to $1,293.50 and silver give back 28.8 cents to 1944.7c. Disappointing, but hardly fatal.
    Take silver first. Somewhat suspiciously massive selling appeared about 9:30 Eastern Time, massive enough to smash silver down from 1968c to 1943c in about ten minutes. I pass over this event in silence, since the Nice Government Men might take umbrage if I point the finger at them, although they are the most likely suspect. The SILVER PRICE rebounded in a couple of hours to 1963c, but faded off the rest of the day for that 1944.7c close.

    Stepping back a bit, silver remains in an uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) that began with the 1868.5c low on 1 May. It touched back today to the 20 DMA. If it seriously intends an uptrend, it ought to cross above 2000c in the next two or three days.

    Like silver the GOLD PRICE got clobbered by mysterious but deep pocketed forces about 9:30, knocking it from $13,04 to $1,290.90 in less than a quarter hour. Comex closed below $1,295 at $1,293.50 but the day ended at $1,296.10.

    The gold price has been trending up since $1,268.40 low on 24 April 2014: higher lows, higher highs, except it must yet better $1,315.80, the very last high. Rising above $1,309 will also give gold escape speed from the even-sided triangle formation, and should lead to a much longer run. I didn’t like higher volume today on a falling price, but other indicators keep on pointing their fingers up.

    Let’s take stock of stocks.

    Since the last days of 2013 the Dow has been attempting, lo, hath tried thrice, to break through 16,500 – 16,600 resistance, but has failed. Last try was a new all time high on 13 May at 16,613.97, but two days later the Dow is 268 points (1.7%) lower. Thus ’twas not a breakout, but a fake out.

    S&P500 hath tried thrice since 1 March to break through 1880 – 1900, but it, too, hath failed. Today both it and the Dow bumped into their 50 day moving averages below. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have been lagging and dragging — leading the way down, as it turns out.

    Today the Dow lost 167.16 (1.01%) to close at 1,6446.81. S&P500 lost 17.88 (0.94%) and ended at 1,870.85. All this constitutes, until and unless the market gainsays with higher prices, a plain downward reversal.

    Silver Price
     Gold Price

    Meanwhile the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are making good on the signals they have been hinting. Dow in Gold lost 0.1% today to 12.71 oz (G$262.74 gold dollars), and fell through its 20 DMA (12.76 oz). A heartbeat only separates it from breaking down from the flat-topped rising triangle it has been forming since mid-March. Any close below today’s will be outside that triangle.

    The rising flat-topped triangle (Mercy, that’s clumsy!) formed AFTER the 31 December 2013 peak at 13,80 oz (G$285.27), the high for the move. Other indicators point down.

    Dow in silver rose 0.47% today to 844.12 oz (S$1,091.39 silver dollars), but only after falling through its 20 day moving average yesterday, and after twice bumping through its uptrend line. Indicators signaling a trip downhill.

    That rotten US dollar index today touched its downtrend (from February) line and clean fainted. Lost 4 basis points to close 80.08. That’s probably not too surprising for a first try at punching through.

    Meanwhile the 10 year treasury not yield plunged yet again, down 1.61% to 2.502%, back at November 2013’s low. This bodes bad indigestion for stocks. Money is fleeing stocks into government securities.

    Euro lost 0.2% to $1.3711. That was up off the low at $1.3648. Euro has a long way yet to fall. This is only beginning.

    Yen definitively broke above its reigning trading range boundary to close at 98.47 cents per Y100, up 0.31%. 200 DMA stands above at 99.06, ready to stop it.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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