• The Gold Price Rose $11 Closing Above $1,200 at $1,204.60

    2-Apr-15 10-Apr-15 Change % Change
    Gold Price, $/oz. 1,200.90 1,204.60 3.70 0.3
    Silver Price, $/oz. 16.686 16.37 0.316 -1.9
    Gold/Silver Ratio 71.971 73.586 1.615 2.2
    Silver/gold ratio 0.0139 0.0136 -0.0003 -2.2
    Dow in Gold $ (DIG$) 305.77 309.93 4.16 1.4
    Dow in gold ounces 14.79 14.99 0.20 1.4
    Dow in Silver ounces 1,064.56 1,103.26 38.70 3.6
    Dow Industrials 17,763.24 18,060.41 297.17 1.7
    S&P500 2,066.96 2,101.77 34.81 1.7
    US dollar index 97.79 99.66 1.87 1.9
    Platinum Price 1,153.80 1,170.00 16.20 1.4
    Palladium Price 746.00 775.75 29.75 4.0

    3 Day Gold Price Chart
    30 Day Gold Price Chart
    5 Year Gold Price Chart
    3 Day Silver Price Chart
    30 Day Silver Price Chart
    5 Year Silver Price Chart

    Silver and GOLD PRICES staged a dramatic reversal today that shouts strength.

    From the dismal breakdowns yesterday, the GOLD PRICE rose $11 (0.9%) to $1,204.60, well over the morale-busting $1,200 level. Silver added 20.6 cents (1.27%) to close $16.37 on Comex. That was a “paint-the-tape” close for sure, since silver rose above $16.50 in the aftermarket & didn’t trade near $16.37 for longer than it took the black shirts to say “Close!”

    Why am I buoyed by today? Gold hit that uptrend line from the March low and bounced! It’s above its 20 DMA and 50 DMA ($1,204.20). It has climbed back above $1,20, & that bounce from the low $1,190s was strong. Buyers wouldn’t let it languish there, so support from below is pushing gold up.

    The SILVER PRICE had broken yesterday through its trading channel’s bottom boundary, but today threw a leg over that line and bounced back over the fence. Closed slightly below the 20 & 50 DMAs, which are running together ($16.52 & $1.653).

    In short words, yesterday’s breakdowns FAILED to hold, and a failed breakdown is a bullish — one longs to say “most bullish” — sign.

    Gold/Silver Ratio

    Now factor in the GOLD/SILVER RATIO last two days it gapped up above the 20 & 50 DMAs & looked like it would take off for the moon. Whoops, it reversed today. Now that may be no more than gap filling, we’ll see next week. All the same, it matches March behavior when the ratio broke out upside, only to fail & drop like your mother-in-law’s respect when you show up drunk for her birthday party. Y’all go look on the right.

    Today’s trading implies (does NOT guarantee) that silver & gold prices intend to keep on rallying a while, and that this week’s trip below $1,200 may have been the last.

    Platinum Price

    Almost forgot the white metals! Since 2011’s top the PLATINUM PRICE has sketched out a long falling wedge. Early in March it fell through the bottom boundary, but has since climbed above that line. Today it stands at the 50 DMA. Once again, it appears to be a failed breakdown. See on the left.

    Palladium Price

    The PALLADIUM PRICE, bless its heart, trades like a mad dog much of the time. But in early 2014 it broke through its downtrend line from 2011, rallied to 913, then fell back to touch that line. It rose and fell back again this year, but after hitting the line once more, it riseth again. It appears palladium’s long bear market is about over. See on the right.

    ‘Tis instructive to remember that on 27 March someone wrote, “Unless stocks can scrabble back above the March high, the plunge has begun, the end of the long Fed-sponsored stock bull market.” Although they have recovered some, two weeks later stocks remain well below the March high. Silver & gold have spent two weeks wheel-spinning, although the numbers really don’t tell this week’s heroic story. Platinum & palladium are climbing out of the pit of infamy.

    Stocks finally managed to move a little today. Dow added 101.68 (0.57%) to 18,060.41. S&P500 jumped 0.51% (10.59) to 2,101.77.

    Always have to look out for taking facts out of context — context is everything. Doesn’t matter if you’re a 6’4″ girl in a population that averages 7’10”, you’re still not tall.

    Likewise, step away from the numbers & look at them charted. Dow remains in a plain downtrend since the March highs with two higher highs and two lower lows. S&P500 ahs sketched a long, narrow even-sided triangle, but above are lower highs. Next week the S&P500 would need to exceed 2,110 to o’erleap that downtrend line (upper triangle boundary). Dow would have to beat 18,120 – 18,130. Possible, but hasn’t happened yet, & looked pretty puny this week.

    Dow in Silver

    Dow measured in metals remains rolled over & in a downtrend. Dow in silver lost 0.87% today to close at S$1,425.18 silver dollars (1,102.29 troy ounces). Stands above the 20 & 50 DMA’s, but within the Gator Jaws and below mid-March peak. Chart on the right.

    Dow in Gold

    Dow in gold dropped 0.33% today to G$309.87 gold dollars (14.99 oz). Still swimming in the gator jaws, and has made its second lower low, but not yet violated 50 DMA. Chart on left.

    US dollar index yesterday pierced the downtrend line & surged. Today it rose again, 20 basis points (0.20%) to 99.6. This begs the forecast that the dollar index is aiming for a double top with March’s 100.71, although it could stop higher or lower. Chart on the right.

    US Dollar

    Now y’all know not to thump your chests over a rising yankee dollar, right? The currency market is as phony as all today’s manipulated markets — Mercy, no! Phonier by far. Like every other scabrous, scrofulous, vile, parasitical, wicked fiat currency, the dollar is an expropriation waiting to happen. The rally you are witnessing is driven by carry-trade gamblers. Thanks to central banks Zero Interest Rate Policy, they are able to borrow for nothing & gamble with the loans. If you could visit the casino with a bottomless line of credit, would you hold hands with the one-armed bandit? Can a duck swim?

    Yet again the euro covered itself with shame, dropping 0.5% to $1.0605. Wrecked hopes of a rally this week. Yen gained 0.36% to 83.21, still keeping its head down & scooting sideways, avoiding attention.

    Last few days I’ve been meaning to tell y’all that premiums on common fractional gold coins have jumped. Sovereigns (0.2354 troy ounce) have gained about $8 in premium, French & Swiss 20 francs the same. Since these coins are favored gold investment forms in Europe, & since small coins have been disappearing for a couple of years, one is tempted to speculate that more Greeks & other Europeans are bailing out of the Euro. Just a guess.

    Y’all enjoy your weekend.

    Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt — — Gold and silver must be bought.

    – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

    © 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

    WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

    Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

    NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

    NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

    NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

    What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

    One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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